From: Gov. Jim Gilmore, III [eLeader@mail.echampions2000.com]
Sent: Thursday, June 21, 2001 1:28 AM
To: Fred Hoot
Subject: The Momentum of President Bush
On Tuesday night, Republican Randy Forbes was elected to represent one of the most competitive, Democratic-leaning districts in America: Virginia's 4th Congressional District. President Clinton won the 4th district in 1992 and 1996, and Republican Senate candidates lost the district in 1998 and 2000 (even while they won statewide).
Despite the tough odds, Randy Forbes won a hard fought election on the strength of a positive message of furthering the programs and policies of President Bush. While his Democrat opponent used scare tactics and negative campaigning, Forbes won the district by more than 5,000 votes.
The media labeled this election as a referendum on President Bush. Democrats were desperate to win, but Republicans won another victory in a swing district.
To give you a bit of historical perspective, there have been 78 special elections over the past 25 years. Only 19 of those special elections resulted in a change of party representation for the seat, and only three of those 19 swung toward the party of the President. Historical odds were not in his favor, but Representative-elect Forbes defied the odds.
So what does this history-defying Republican victory mean to us on a national level? The Forbes victory is proof positive of the continuing nationwide momentum across the political spectrum for President Bush's agenda for America.
And you have been a large part of sustaining the Bush momentum. You helped President Bush and Congress achieve together what critics said couldn't be done - a bipartisan $1.35 trillion tax relief package. The first round of tax relief checks was mailed yesterday, and I sincerely appreciate your helping American taxpayers get the relief we deserve.
If President Bush is to succeed in improving our schools, rebuilding our military, saving Social Security and Medicare and ushering in the responsibility era, he will need your continued help and involvement.
President Bush is counting on all of us to become his Team Leaders. Learn more about this unique opportunity to spread the President's message and help retain and increase our majorities in 2002 by visiting http://www.gopteamleader.com.
Again, thank you for your continued efforts. Without you, odds are we wouldn't have been able to win in Virginia.
Very truly yours,
Chairman, Republican National Committee
Background on VA-04 Special Election
June 20, 2001
Upset in Virginia Special Election
A Victory for White House & National GOP
Republican Team Pulls Together, Victory a Model for
'01 and '02 Elections
-- Last night, Randy Forbes was elected to represent Virginia's 4th district, receiving 52.1% (70,926 votes) to Democrat Louise Lucas' 47.9% (65,189 votes). This election is a swing district-President Clinton won the district by 1% in 1992 and 7% in 1996, while President Bush won the district by less than 1,000 votes.
-- In the past 25 years, there have been 78 special elections. Only 19 resulted in a change of party representation for the seat, and of the 19, only 3 swung toward the party of the President. Now 4.
-- President Bill Clinton pre-recorded thousands of turnout calls for this special election.
-- The voters embraced the President's policies.
-- Most importantly the President's policies were embraced in a moderate swing district drawn by Democrats, further evidence that President Bush is addressing the issues that affect and unite everyone.
-- Randy Forbes ran on the programs, policies and momentum of President Bush. Randy ran on moving the President's policies forward and now the results are in and the outcome is clear.
-- Media pundits recognized that this would be a referendum on the President.
Bob Novak, of The Chicago Sun-Times: "A mailing came out from the Democratic candidates...saying...there's no doubt who the Bush Republican will help, who it will hurt -- six million minority families and 12 million children will be left behind." (CNN's "Inside Politics," 06/07/01)
Mark Shields: "Larry, is this Virginia race really an early referendum on President George W. Bush?" U.Va. Professor Larry Sabato: "To a certain agree I think it is." (CNN?s "Capital Gang," 06/16/01)
"Numerous national analysts called the [special election] a test of the two parties' strengths and a possible bellwether for the fight for control of the House of Representatives in 2002. Some of the national cachet surrounding the contest comes from its status as the first congressional election since Vermont Sen. James M. Jeffords' defection from the GOP switched control of the Senate?" (Tyler Whitley, "Lucas, Forbes Push Turnout," The Richmond Times-Dispatch, 06/19/01)
"...a contest that's being widely viewed as an early indicator of voter attitudes toward Bush and his policies. The result, said Stuart Rothenberg, an independent analyst of congressional campaigns, is that the race looms as 'a sort of referendum on George W. Bush, on the energy issue, on Social Security and on the direction of the country.' Indeed, Rothenberg and others will review the outcome as a possible harbinger for the 2002 midterm elections." (Robert L. Jackson, "Va. House Race May Show GOP What It Faces In '02," Los Angeles Times, 06/17/01)
"National politicians view the toss-up race in Virginia's 4th District not only as a possible referendum on the Bush administration but also as a bellwether race that will determine which party has the momentum heading into the 2002 elections." (Allison Stevens, "Polls See Virginia Race As Preview Of Battle For The House In 2002," The Hill, 06/13/01)
Bob Edwards: "The election is being portrayed as a referendum on the Bush administration." (NPR's "Morning Edition," 06/13/01)
Fred Barnes: "This election in the fourth district of Virginia is the Vieques of elections. It's the testing ground for this Social Security issue. And if the Democrat, who is an African- American woman named Louise Lucas, if she wins, Democrats are going to rightly conclude, this Social Security issue is dynamite, and we can attack Bush's partial privatization bill." (Fox's "Fox News Sunday," 06/17/01)
"Political analysts said the race would be viewed as an early referendum on the Bush administration and as a bellwether for next year's midterm elections." (Larry O'Dell, "State Senators Compete For Open Seat In Congress," The Associated Press, 06/19/01)
"[T]oday's by-election in Virginia's Fourth District has become a referendum on Mr. Bush's first five months. If the Democrats win, they will argue that Mr. Bush has once again been rejected and that they have the momentum for next year's crucial mid-term elections." (Damian Whitworth, "Battle Flares As Virginia Poll Puts Bush To Test," The London Times, 06/19/01)
-- GOP Unity, May 10: White House Political Director Ken Mehlman spoke at the Chesterfield GOP Unity dinner on May 10. Chesterfield County was Forbes' primary opponents strongest county.
-- Fundraising, June 4: Vice President Cheney spoke at a fundraiser in Chesapeake where nearly $100,000 was contributed to the Forbes campaign.
-- Education, June 12: Forbes participated in an inner-city school event in Portsmouth where Secretary Paige spoke about the President's Plan to reform education.
-- Sportsmen, June 14: Former NASCAR superstar and current FOX racing analyst Darrell Waltrip visited a Forbes for Congress picnic, garnering media coverage both on the front page and the sports pages of local newspapers.
-- Mail: President Bush signed his name to an absentee ballot mail piece that garnered more than 2,000 responses. Bob Dole signed a letter that went to 55,000 veterans and their families.
-- Phones: Over 66,000 phone calls were made with a message from President Bush. 45,000 phone calls were made to seniors with a message from Barbara Bush.
-- State Parties: 42 GOP State Parties contributed money to the Forbes campaign, with the majority of parties sending $5,000, the maximum allowed, raising a total of $230,000.
-- Members of Congress: Approximately 130 Members of Congress contributed money to the Forbes Campaign, including dozens of leadership PACs.
-- Veterans, May 19: Secretary Principi attended a Veterans event on May 19 to reach out to the 150,000 servicemen, former servicemen, and military families in the district.
-- Outreach, June 8: Congressman J.C. Watts attended a Forbes event in a heavily African-American part of the district with pastors and community leaders.
Paid for by the Republican National Committee.
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